The Exponential Apocalypse

Forgive the ‘cheery’ title and subject matter but something has been irking me. ‘What?’ I hear you ask, or was that my inner voice? Well, it is the apparent surprise and disbelief that climate change is impacting so quickly and in so many dramatic and harmful ways when we only started talking about it in public a few decades ago. The audacity of our climate!

I’m no scientist but am a great believer in evidence-based, peer-reviewed science. It only took the data around carbon dioxide levels increasing in the atmosphere to convince me of the dangers of climate change. History has already left us clues of the impact from human industry: smelting from the Roman Empire having left its mark in the ice core records of the Arctic. The world’s population was then estimated as 500 million. We are now a planet of over eight billion, with a global industrialised economy of consumers and producers. The visible signs of our impact are already abundant with vanishing forests and other natural habitat, expanding smoggy cities and more cars, while the species on the brink of extinction continue to grow. That so many people remain in denial is perhaps down to what’s not visible to them and an innate reluctance to give things up. Born in the affluent environment of the UK, I’ve not seen the smoky chimneys of Victorian Britain pumping out their poison or the vast woodlands that once blanketed the country. All of this is in the past. My landscape is fairly stable; the products I use largely built from the chimneys of far away lands. My carbon footprint feels insignificant - a mirage in the shimmering heat of my consumption. But if I did live among those chimneys, then my prosperity would feel entwined with the smoke continuing to pump. In short, the individual is too close and isolated to see the wider problem. I drive my car without thinking in terms of a billion other driven cars. I throw away the empty ink cartridge without thinking of what it took to get it to me or what happens to it next. We are disinvested in every element apart from the consumption. We have to take a step back: see in terms of time, scale and impact. I don’t hold with blocking roads or spraying buildings with paint to make a point, though recognise the desperation that is driving those protestors. Winning over people’s minds requires something more subtle. Too many humans retain that adolescent mentality of doing the opposite of what they’re told to do or what’s best for them. The survival instinct is embedded within our DNA, like with all species; it compels us to think of our own needs first and foremost. That we function in communities is because our prehistoric ancestors recognised their own chance of survival increased with the support of others. Now that same ‘selfish’ instinct drives us to consume to maintain our comfortable lifestyles within societies, despite the action sawing through the very tree of community/humanity we perch upon. The solution lies in individuals working as communities, societies and as a species. Laws are required but we also need to become invested in the consequences of our consumption. Perhaps if each local community had a role in waste beyond putting it out for the dustman, we might understand the scale of the problem better, while feeling more inclined to reduce it? But what’s the urgency? Technology, governments and humanity’s genius will save us in time. Right? Maybe it's already too late.

I remember commenting to a friend in those early days of realisation, that the problem with human-influenced climate change is it would be an exponential process. In layman terms, things will get worse not only at an increased rate but with the rate itself continuing to accelerate i.e. climate change will run out-of-control far sooner than we think. For those that have accepted climate change as a phenomenon, a number still consider it in overly simple terms: temperatures will be higher, weather becoming more extreme and sea levels rise. It’ll be all right though. We’ll put on the sunscreen, build better ditches and move a bit inland. Oh, if only it were that simple. We’ve seen this year with the extreme forest fires, that higher temperatures and less rain brings other damaging side-effects. As large swathes of forest burn, huge amounts of carbon dioxide are being released into the atmosphere, while those trees no longer absorb the same said gas. Further northwards the tundra melts releasing methane gas (another greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere. The planet gets still hotter, melting the ice caps faster, generating more fires, more floods, disrupting the traditional currents of the oceans and atmosphere. The seas, already warming but temporarily diluted by the melting ice, eventually start absorbing more carbon dioxide, becoming more acidic. Those marine lifeforms able to cope with warmer seas, now die out. The intricate global ecosystem breaks down and all but the simplest of lifeforms survives. A process far too fast for evolution’s sedate adaptations. Quite early in the process we’ll see global food production impacted, water resources restricted, human migration increasing, wars breaking out. And this in turn will further impact on food production, water resources etc. The contract of civilisation relies on surplus food to share with those who do non-farming things in society, while obliging the rulers to protect its citizens. When that fails, central governments will fall, anarchy will follow and a more primordial ‘survival of the fittest’ will establish itself.

So many other facets lie within the exponential apocalypse that will surprise us, confound us and defeat us. While the Earth and life may be resilient and able to survive, most species are not and will not, and I suspect if the climate doesn’t finish us humans off, we’ll somehow manage to do it ourselves. We’re a resourceful bunch!